Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
